Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.084731e+00 1.291363 1.507682 1.749502 2.010845 2.283466 2.588074
2025-02-02 8.533391e-01 1.152756 1.485639 1.876575 2.317200 2.793338 3.341900
2025-02-09 7.402236e-01 1.092152 1.499409 1.992467 2.561898 3.189288 3.923889
2025-02-16 6.318688e-01 1.019161 1.485151 2.065290 2.749770 3.516438 4.426159
2025-02-23 5.257881e-01 0.931138 1.438415 2.086998 2.867362 3.754303 4.818971
2025-03-02 4.006034e-01 0.800059 1.324728 2.016526 2.867155 3.849282 5.042620
2025-03-09 2.942523e-01 0.677410 1.208668 1.932035 2.840958 3.906465 5.216055
2025-03-16 2.219815e-01 0.591679 1.131943 1.889278 2.858911 4.010223 5.438720
2025-03-23 1.840204e-01 0.553537 1.116168 1.921893 2.967309 4.219666 5.783599
2025-03-30 1.447803e-01 0.505331 1.081178 1.925444 3.036541 4.379997 6.068915
2025-04-06 1.051472e-01 0.446557 1.024824 1.895895 3.060533 4.483042 6.284190
2025-04-13 9.246587e-02 0.439220 1.045312 1.970908 3.218137 4.749020 6.694065
2025-04-20 8.269615e-02 0.438830 1.080107 2.071763 3.417373 5.076218 7.190234
2025-04-27 7.651346e-02 0.445918 1.127336 2.191473 3.643269 5.439013 7.732789
2025-05-04 7.324636e-02 0.459118 1.183923 2.323994 3.885494 5.821585 8.298733
2025-05-11 6.227201e-02 0.449567 1.201930 2.400809 4.054344 6.113277 8.755282
2025-05-18 4.639302e-02 0.420510 1.184694 2.425112 4.152659 6.316389 9.103963
2025-05-25 2.419747e-02 0.356515 1.101120 2.348392 4.113579 6.345555 9.239501
2025-06-01 8.907850e-03 0.293729 1.011219 2.256668 4.050240 6.341088 9.331318
2025-06-08 2.381811e-03 0.251794 0.953973 2.210126 4.044863 6.407143 9.506854
2025-06-15 7.177375e-04 0.237776 0.950214 2.245620 4.151777 6.616207 9.858679
2025-06-22 2.405618e-07 0.215716 0.927292 2.249479 4.213923 6.767299 10.138395
2025-06-29 NaN 0.185797 0.883315 2.217334 4.224241 6.850597 10.333167